Claimants votes will count in Makerfield, where the number of personal independence payment (PIP) recipients is enough to influence the outcome of the most important byelection in recent history, according to the DWP’s own statistics.
The DWP’s statxplore tool reveals that there are 8,225 PIP claimants aged 18 and over and 5,464 universal credit health element recipients in the constituency.
At the last election, Labour held the seat with a majority of 5,399 with 40,263 votes cast in all, out of a total electorate of 76,641 (52.55% turnout).
This means that PIP claimants alone make up over 10% of the Makerfield electorate.
The most recent poll in Makerfield put Labour ahead at 43% compared to Reform on 40%. So, the number of PIP claimants is potentially considerably more than the difference in votes between the two main contenders.
Given so close a race, where might those disabled claimants who have their future financial welfare top of their list of priorities, place their vote?
Reform on benefits
Back at the beginning of April, Farage announced that Reform would soon provide details of “the biggest cuts to the benefits bill ever seen in the history of this country". Since then he has claimed that Reform’s plans are so radical they will cause “riots” and “strikes”.
But the local elections have come and gone, the Makerfield byelection campaign is underway and Reform have still to give any details of their grand plan.
But Reform have already announced three changes that will affect current claimants if they get into power:
Stopping PIP for 80-90% of claimants with depression or anxiety.
A crackdown on Motability, with Lee Anderson jeering that he would bring back the blue three-wheeler.
Incentivising benefits assessors to fail claimants.
In this regard, it’s worth noting that in Makerfield:
2,940 PIP claimants have psychiatric disorders listed as the main condition for their claim and 986 of these have anxiety or mixed anxiety and depressive disorders as the basis of their award.
4,235 PIP claimants get the enhanced rate of the mobility component, making them eligible for the Motability scheme.
Even if there is considerable overlap between the two groups, they still make up at least 5% of the Makerfield electorate, more than the difference between the two candidates according to current polls.
In a knife edge election, the votes of these claimants, whose welfare has been plainly threatened by Reform, could be crucial.
Labour on benefits
Readers don’t needed to be reminded of what many regard as the unforgiveable betrayal by Labour’s front bench when it comes to benefits. Cuts to UC health for new claimants will plunge many into poverty. And the attempt to slash PIP by introducing the 4-point rule would have devastated the lives of vast numbers of current claimants.
But Labour backbenchers and many others in the Labour movement fought back against the PIP cuts. And it would be fair to say that Andy Burnham was a strong voice urging MPs to vote against the government’s welfare reforms.
Now, however, claimants are waiting for the outcome of the Timms review, with a real possibility that Labour’s front bench are plotting another assault on PIP. And there are many other likely attacks waiting in the wings, including the abolition of the work capability assessment and the introduction of a new, time-limited, unemployment insurance contributory benefit.
Labour are not a party that many claimants would wish to give their vote to.
Least worst option
But it is fairly certain that there are only two parties with any hope of winning in Makerfield. At present the polls don’t put any other party even into double figures. Either Labour or Reform will take the seat.
If Labour take it, there is a strong possibility that Burnham will go on to be the next leader of the Labour Party and the next prime minister. And there is then a possibility, though very far from a certainty given Burnham’s reputation for ever changing loyalties, that Labour’s new front bench will be less punitive towards disabled claimants.
If Reform take the seat, however, it is a cast iron certainty that it will be a disaster for disabled claimants. The Labour party will be in disarray, with a fatally damaged leader and no obvious replacement, with the possible exception of Wes Streeting who has said he wants to cut welfare to pay for weapons.
Reform will receive a huge boost to their morale and their credibility. They will look more than ever like the party destined to win the next election, with all that entails for disabled people.
We know, that disabled claimant numbers in Makerfield mean that they can make a real difference to the outcome of this election. And right now, unpalatable as it may seem, voting Labour may well be the only way to avert the disaster of a Reform victory.
