Not convinced by Stephen Timms' MP reference to OBR predictions

Stephen Timms MP states as follows:

"After taking into account behavioural changes, the OBR predicts that 9 in 10 of those receiving the PIP daily living component at the point that any changes come into effect will still be receiving PIP by the end of the decade.":

www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2025-06-02.56150.h

Does anyone know the precise report he is referring to? I am sceptical given that, based on current DWP caseload data, out of the 1,283,000 standard daily living awards, 87% (1,116,000) get fewer than 4 points in all activities:

www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/personal_...i_7#incoming-2989270

That is a document drafted by the DWP, or are you suggesting that there is a link to the respective OBR findings in the document?

Evidently, Timm's statement is extremely misleading and disingenuous.

You can see more about how that is worked out here:

questions-statements.parliament.uk/writt...ail/2025-05-14/52414

This is the pertinent section:

"Reassessments happen on average every 3 years. Someone who didn’t score 4 points in an activity in a previous assessment may well score 4 points in a future assessment – not least as many conditions tend to get worse, not better, over time.

After taking account of behavioural changes, the OBR predicts that 370,000 people who will be receiving PIP at the point of implementation of the four point requirement in November 2026, will lose their PIP Daily Living entitlement by 2029/30. Of all PIP recipients at the point of implementation, 9 in 10 will not lose PIP during the subsequent 3 years from this change."

So, it seems, the "9 in 10" calculation is worked out on the basis that most people will not lose PIP given they won't be reassessed under the new rules in a 3 year period, which is obviously not the same thing as 9 out of 10 claimants not being affected by the new rules should they now apply to them.

I have done my own calculations based on this FOI request:

www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/personal_...i_7#incoming-2989270

87% of the 1,283,000 working age people currently receiving the standard daily living Personal Independence Payment (PIP) payment scored less than four points in each of the ten categories in the PIP assessment – meaning that they would no longer qualify for the daily living PIP benefit under Labour’s proposed new rules. A further 13% of the 1,608,000 working age claimants receiving the higher, ‘enhanced’ daily living PIP payment would also fall foul of the planned changes – giving a total of about 1.325m current PIP claimants who would be rendered ineligible by these proposals. 3.7m people currently claim PIP, so around 39% of claimants are not going to be eligible for the daily living component.