A group of academics from Northern universities and health services have calculated how much income each Westminster parliamentary constituency may lose as a result of personal independence payment (PIP) cuts.  Labour constituencies take 92 of the top 100 biggest losers places, with the North East and North West hardest hit, suggesting that PIP cuts are aimed squarely at Labour’s own voters.

The, report was funded and produced by Health Equity North and carried out by academics from the universities of Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield, along with the Northern Health Service Alliance.

Researchers looked at how many PIP claimants in each constituency did not score four points or more for any daily living activity. They then calculated what the loss of PIP for those claimants would mean in total for each constituency as well as what the loss per head of working age population would be.

Researchers found that:

  • The ten worst-hit constituencies are all Labour-held, and in “Red Wall” areas
  • The impacts will disproportionately affect the constituencies which already have the lowest life expectancies in England.
  • They found that the average loss per working age adult in England is £176
  • The changes are set to have the greatest effect on regions such as the North East (£269 per working-age person on average), the North West (£231), Yorkshire and The Humber (£206), the West Midlands (£191) and the East Midlands (£185)
  • The worst-hit constituencies are in Easington (£409 per working-age person), Liverpool Walton (£403) and Knowsley (£389)
  • These three constituencies alone could lose an estimated total of £23.8m, £26.2m and £23.4m respectively per year by 2029/30
  • The smallest difference is in Bristol Central (£62 per working-age person), Oxford and West Abingdon (£66) and Wimbledon (£67)
  • The impact on these constituencies is £5m, 4.7m and £4.9m respectively per year by 2029/30
  • The most-deprived constituencies will lose nearly three times the amount of the least-deprived (£265 per working-age person on average compared to £96)

In fact, because these calculations did not take into account the possible loss of other linked benefits and the loss of additional elements in other benefits, the actual figures could be very considerably higher.

One of the report’s authors, Professor Clare Bambra, said:

“Those areas that will lose most from this proposal were already decimated by austerity, COVID and the cost of living crisis. They have worse health than other regions and their local services and economies are already struggling. Losses of this magnitude risk worsening the situation for everyone living in these deprived constituencies.

“Parliament cannot risk rushing proposals like these through without fully considering how they affect local areas that are already struggling. We hope that research such as ours gives MPs more context, so they can make the most informed, forward-thinking and economical decision.”

Readers with a Labour MP, in particular, might want to drop them an email drawing attention to this report.

You can read more and download a copy of Local Economic Impact of the Proposed Changes to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) by Parliamentary Constituency

 

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  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 3 days ago
    On this trend, by the time the next GE gets closer, we would hardly see any difference between Reform, Labour, and the Cons, as from now onward Labour and the Cons would jump over each other to show which one is further to the right, rather than going back to their sources and consolidating on the very principles upon which they were founded.

    Both Labour and the Cons would be attracted to parrot far-right politics to try to prevent losing voters to Reform, and this would legitimise and mainstream far-right arguments.

    Labour have already started this, as they've lately been bashing immigrants, and since getting beaten in last Thursday's elections, they've started targeting international students, claiming they apply for asylum, even though according to the Home Office, the number among international students claiming asylum is a drop in the ocean.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 2 days ago
      @tintack
      You're right. You don't fight far-right by copying their rhetoric. This can only backfire on you.

      Mainstream parties copying the far-right happened in the past in France early 2000s, when the Republicans adopted far-right rhetoric. And guess what - the French far-right National Front has since been scoring stunning results in French presidential elections, with between 18% and 20% of the vote and consistently getting in the second place!

      The father of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of the French far-right National Front party, renamed National Rally party, used to say, "People prefer the original over the copies"!
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Scorpion
      The Labour right never learn. You don't fight a hard right party by imitating them. That just legitimises their message as voters think "well if the main parties are saying similar things then Reform must have been right". Those voters then decide to vote for the real thing rather than the imitation. 

      They were warned this would happen but they wouldn't listen and even now they're doubling down on this insanity. "Further and faster" looks set to be the new "strong and stable".
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 3 days ago
    30+% of the UK population will not have a job by the end of Starmer's term, because of AI taking jobs.

    Instead of tabling solutions to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, he just cuts the income support of disabled people.

    A real dystopia is coming.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Anon This is true though I think the numbers are going to be much much higher. Driverless cars and lorries will replace driver jobs, warehouses will have more robots and automation and a lot more is going to be replaced and the government has not prepared for any of it. Instead of looking into a universal wage for everyone (Finland already has) we are stuck with old fashioned ideas about labour. Unfortunately our leaders are very out of touch with how much technology is going to change the landscape and the revolution that is literally round the corner we are going to be doomed. The solution will be to have a far more egalitarian society in which people are looked after but this will require a big jump in the thinking of our classically educated politicians. 
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 3 days ago
    If Rachel Reeves hadn't changed the fiscal rule none of this would be happening. It's all of Labour's own making. 
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Anon You can't borrow money indefinitely the money markets won't stand for it.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Anon Changing the fiscal rule gave her what she hoped would be an excuse for these cuts. She wanted to make them anyway.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    It's suicide. Suicide for the Labour party, suicide for people who will be expected to live on £5k per annum. Labour campaigners reported that on every doorstep people were angry about removing the WFA and PIP changes, but Keir's answer is to do more of the same.

    Now thanks to Labour we are looking at being governed by fascists
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    Probably will  be some sort of loophole/exemption from the cuts for his prefered demographic.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    Why are you not putting my comments on your site that i put on  
    They are not rude just stating facts that the labour party are incompetent .
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    If the goal is Britain's recovery and saving the Labour Party from drowning, then the current government's policy must change and shift towards a policy similar to that of Jeremy Corbyn. This is not a joke, it's a fact and urgent. However, stubbornness and insistence on the same strict austerity policy towards the poor and middle classes, the destruction of social care and welfare... and what's next? Must avoiding the pursuit of populist policies to appease Reform Party voters means a disastrous failure for the politicians in government today and the ruin of the Labour Party, ending in a deep sleep for many long years due to a lack of confidence in it in future, (((WE NEVER HOPE FOR THIS... BUT..))), from which the extreme right is gaining more and more.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 1 days ago
      @WorkshyLayabout Thanks! Should be interesting.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 1 days ago
      @Azalea
      Thanks Azalea. Did you know that the BBC's own editorial guidelines say that it is not supposed to platform any organisation that refuses to disclose its sources of funding? Yet the Tufton Street grifters are platformed by the BBC on an almost daily basis despite er.....refusing to disclose their sources of funding. How does the BBC get away with breaking its own guidelines so regularly? It's almost as if they are in some way unaccountable. Of course, if it platformed left wing organisations that didn't disclose their funding - yes, I know, as if - there would be uproar at such flagrant breaches of the editorial guidelines, but the Tufton Street mob are all on the right so nothing is done about it.

      Most gobsmacking was the aftermath of Truss' car crash of a budget, when talking heads from the IEA were invited to comment on the fallout. It was no secret that that budget had the IEA's fingerprints all over it, so you'd think they would have some serious questions to answer. But no - they were invited by the BBC and other broadcasters to comment as though they were disinterested observers talking about someone else's mess, rather than something they had done so much to inflict on the country. And they STILL get platformed.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 1 days ago
      @Neal
      Thanks Neal. Your visual impairment is certainly not compromising the quality of your posts.

      "It is true that the solution for Britain is to return to the era of Jeremy Corbyn, but British society has not yet matured into the socialist concept, and it may take some time."

      We really need a more media-savvy version of someone like Corbyn. Polling evidence during his tenure consistently showed that his policies were very popular........until his name was put next to them, at which point the same people who said they liked those policies turned against them. The character assassination was off the charts but unfortunately it worked. It's odd that people who supported him were accused of being part of a cult when it was his policies that got him so much support. 

      As things stand the supposed alternative to the established parties is Reform, which masquerades as an insurgent anti-establishment party while actually offering more of the same but even worse. They are the establishment's dream: making sure the supposed alternative actually supports entrenching that same establishment's wealth and power even further while pretending to give a damn about ordinary people. A properly functioning media would have exposed that long ago, but this is Normal Island, so.......

      Apparently even as mainstream a figure as Robert Peston has questioned why Labour is continuing to move right when it's losing far more votes to its left than Reform. An article in today's Guardian also says there is increasing concern in the party that the Labour leadership isn't taking the loss of progressive votes anywhere near seriously enough. Will the message get through? Who knows, but with benefit cuts having apparently been brought up repeatedly on the doorstep during the local elections campaign the pressure on Labour MPs definitely needs to be kept up.


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      · 2 days ago
      @tintack Thank you for your helpful comments. 
      I am very careful when writing to avoid upsetting anyone or having my writing lost. That's why I refrained from using the word "neoliberalism." I should have written "savage neoliberalism." I can read with specialized tools, but my writing problem is caused by severe visual impairment. Therefore, I have someone to help me with my writing, and I have to monitor for possible errors.
      What you mentioned is a sequential account of actual history. The idea is that the United States is now abandoning its allies in the West to adopt a closed, protectionist system (the slogan "Make America Great Again" is not "greatest," because "greatest" implies hegemony and wars to protect that hegemony and expand). 

      This has ended because the United States and its allies lack the capabilities, and the Ukraine war has proven that all NATO countries, led by the United States, have failed and demonstrated their impotence. The United States, including its deep institutions, is more realistic than the Europeans and agrees to recognize that the era of unipolar hegemony is over and that the order must be radically transformed, based on making America one of the strongest, or the most powerful, global poles, while recognizing the other poles. In America, it looks more like a battle of the summits between the billionaires of the real economy and the billionaires of the virtual economy. Therefore, the liberal order and globalization must end, along with the militarization of NATO. All of this is a thing of the past, and America today is searching for alternative military concepts to its predecessor. Europe—Britain, France, Germany, and those orbiting around it in Europe—is determined to maintain the destructive neoliberal order. It is about corporations, banks, and the powerful, and they have parties that implement what the European oligarchy sees fit. Therefore, it seems to me that today the front line of confrontation will be between neoliberalists and nationalists, such as the current US administration and its allies in Britain (the Reform Party) and the rest of Europe , rather than with the self-constructing and evolving left. It is true that the solution for Britain is to return to the era of Jeremy Corbyn, but British society has not yet matured into the socialist concept, and it may take some time. Thank you for your very useful knowledges Tintak 
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 2 days ago
      @tintack An excellent post tintack, very informative and well analysed. 

      You also have an integrated self-promoting ecosystem of neoliberal ideas, with the majority of the press being right wing, voicing the concerns of its billionaire owners, right wing politicians and representatives of these thinktanks as columnists in these publications, the thinktank representatives on TV daily, often portrayed as objective expert voices, the BBC, seemingly wholly owned by this faction, created Farage by platforming him far more than the 3rd and 4th parties in Parliament and never subjecting him to hard questioning.

      All this makes it seem that "there is no alternative" to neoliberal economics and that right wing issues are what "everyone" is concerned about.  
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    Starmer is writing his own disaster movie based on the titanic, where the icebergs are policy choices to be navigated , and where the ship itself is full of pensioners and the ill and disabled, and we know where it’s heading if he doesn’t change course.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    Good serves them right! They started their downfall all by themselves! Firstly with the farmers inheritance tax, then the pensioners winter fuel allowance, then DWP reforms. Starmer, Reeves, Kendall, along with her dreadfully awful her DWP ministers,  McGovern, Western, Timms, Torsten, Bell. Where was The Taxes promised on the super wealthy to millionaires all the way through to multi billionaires? Where is the improved NHS Dentists? Where is the improved GP appointments? Where is the waiting time cuts drastically for NHS patients to see specialist doctors and nurses? Is hardly anything implemented into law that Labour promised was in their manifesto ironically titled "Change"? 

    How can one of the UKs main two-party system political party that was in opposition for over 14 years win a landslide on the United Kingdom July 4 2024 General Election of 411 seats (reduced to 409 is it now? (with defectors and the recent by election) in the last general election The 2025 local elections most probably my reasons at the start along with many others! 

    Look how well reform done in the local elections with mayorals, councils and councillors. Reform a right-wing political party compared to the supposedly center-left Labour Party. 

    So where is this "Change"?  I'll tell them where their so called "Change" will be after nearly ten months in government the "Change" will be the electorate, voting against. May 1st 2025 local elections was a clear warning to Labour that English voters are understandably unhappy perhaps that's an understatement! No it most probably certainly is! 

    Of course people vote differently in local elections than they do vote in general elections taking into account and considering local issues. 


    Keir Starmer isn't changing his course of direction. Well h

    abyss a


    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Mouseclickeyboardtap None of the political parties are supportive of PIP. Reform have said nothing on the impending cuts. Tories were mooting vouchers. Greens are too busy wrecking the country financially with their nonsense. 
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    C'mon everyone. No matter where I turn, nobody is talking about the things that I see. Nobody is talking about the fact that DWP are robbing points from everyone in various activities. This is what will stop labour in their tracks. Labour will either back down on the 4 point rule or be forced to make DWP give everyone the correct amount of points in various activities. Starmer knows that he has all by the short and curlies from both angles in terms of point in various activities. Lets absolutely crush labour by playing them at their own game. Roooaaarrr.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    I don't understand how the numbers are so low, a few hundred per year? Most are looking at halving their yearly income!
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Sam
      Yet again, some of my comment went AWOL.

      Absolutely. Making a mole hill out of a mountain. Had those figures been per week, it would be more believable. The writers of the report must be living in the same cloud cuckoo land as Labour. 

      Failing to include ESA/UC claimants who are not receiving PIP also adds to the report's invalidity.

      Annual loss for Boston and Skegness is £281.15. I could easily cope with losing that over an entire year. Not so £9880, which is the reality.

      Pity the methodology wasn't asking benefits claimants.

      Here’s an one question survey that will give a more accurate reflection of yearly monetary loss:

      How much roughly per year are other commenters set to lose?
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Sam Absolutely. Making a mole hill out of a mountain. Had 

      Failing to include ESA/UC claimants who are not receiving PIP also adds to the report's invalidity.

      Annual loss for Boston and Skegness is £281.15. I could easily cope with losing that over an entire year. Not so £9880, which is the reality.

      Pity the methodology wasn't asking benefits claimants.

      Here’s an one question survey that will give a more accurate reflection of yearly monetary loss:

      How much roughly per year are other commenters set to lose?
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Sam I think they’re dividing the total loss by the total number of working age adults In England, not just by the number of benefit recipients, so of course the amount per benefit recipient is much higher. For me and fam it’s around £12k per year 
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Sam In the calculation they probably shared the total loss in benefits by the total  number of people who work (not the total number of people who work and receive benefits).
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Sam If I lose PIP, I will also lose higher rate UC. that is 2/3s of my income gone. I will also lose Council tax benefit. Well I am not going to sit idly by and watch Labour crucify me like this. I am defending myself even if it kills me because if Starmer gets his way, this will also kill me.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    We must be aware of a very serious matter: the votes that went to the Reform Party yesterday would have traditionally gone to the Labour Party. However, due to the Starmer government's severe cuts to social welfare for large segments of traditional Labour voters, in retaliation for the Starmer government's inhumane policies, their votes have become a punishment for the Starmer government's harsh policies against them and have gone to the extremist Reform Party, rather than a passion for the policies of Nigel Farage. 

    (((However, the danger lies in the fact that there are no guarantees that these votes will return to Labour in the future. Rather, they may become entrenched in the Reform Party vote, increasing the influence of the far right, as is the case in the United States and Western Europe))).
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Moose
      "Reform are not your friend either."

      Believe me, I am well aware of that!
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 days ago
      @Neal 8 of the 10 councils now under Reform control were Tory. 
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      · 3 days ago
      @tintack Reform are not your friend either. Their obsession is immigration.

      As for the PIPs, they make no comment at all.


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      · 3 days ago
      @Neal The evidence on this suggests that Reform is getting the bulk of its votes from former Tories and people who previously did not vote. It also suggests that Labour is losing far more votes to its left than its right - yet they're doubling down on chasing the votes of right wingers who will never vote for them anyway while not giving a stuff about the fact that their core vote is deserting them for the likes of the Greens and the SNP. It's insane.
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    · 4 days ago
    In ten months, and single handedly, Starmer has opened the door to the prospect of a reform government, because of his political choices so far. God help the ill and disabled if they get power. Even after Thursday’s drubbing he says “ the changes will have to be made faster”. His own party, and people canvassed on their own doorsteps have told him it’s the changes that are the problem.  He’s taking labour to the abyss.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 4 days ago
    Starmer has to go. Simple fact.
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      · 3 days ago
      @Peeved I completely agree.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Leprechaun Sir Keir Starmer and his Neo-Nasty cabinet all have to go, this isn't what we voted for. Take heed Mr Starmer we have long memories and we'll never let you forget.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 4 days ago
      @Leprechaun He certainly does have to go
      Iv never been a conservative voter but labour I have in the past 
      The last election I couldn’t vote but I have to be honest I would of voted labour if I could of 
      This is the worse labour government I have ever known, what happened to the labour that were for the working class people and looking after pensioners and sick and disabled people 
      To me it seem to be that there against everything that they once stood for 
      When I switched on the tv to see who had won the election and saw it was labour I was so happy to see the conservatives go. 
      I can not believe this is a labour government 
      To me it as if they punishing disabled and sick people and our pensioners they have thrown out in the cold to.
      I would of been retired at 66 now I have to wait another 6 months and it’s going up again 
      I doubt I will reach retirement but are they hoping people will die of before they collect there pension and have no retirement after yrs of working 
      Shame on them 
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