A great deal has happened in the two and a half months since the Green Paper was launched. Whilst we wait for the first legislation to be published, it seems a good point to look at what has happened so far and what still needs to be done.
Consultation
The Green Paper consultation is due to end on 30 June, after the first Green paper bill is likely to have been published.
The consultation does not cover the most crucial issues, such as the changes to UC payment rates, the scrapping of the work capability assessment (WCA) or the PIP four points system.
We have no way of knowing how many people have taken part, but given the widely held view that it was a largely bogus exercise we suspect the numbers will be lower than for the Tories consultation on PIP vouchers.
The Zoom consultations have not gone well, with few people invited and even fewer attending. At least one was cancelled after the DWP shared the email addresses of all the attendees, then it was relisted but failed to open and finally just got quietly dumped.
The in-person consultations fared no better. Few people were invited, venue details were kept secret until the last moment, there were demonstrations outside some meetings and the final consultation, due to take place in Cardiff, was cancelled by the DWP although the protest still took place.
It’s probably fair to say that the consultation process has gone very badly for the government so far.
Reports and analysis
There have been some very critical reports published in relation to the Green Paper.
Perhaps the most damaging so far is the hard hitting Citizens Advice (CA) “Pathways to Poverty”, given that CA work closely with the government in providing support for managed migration and so might have been expected to pull their punches.
Others have included the Joseph Rowntree Trust, the Resolution Foundation and Health Equity North.
The Commons work and pensions committee has also produced an interim report calling on the government to delay any changes to PIP and UC
Individual actions
It has undoubtedly been the flood of emails, letters, phone calls and personal visits that has had the most effect on Labour MPs who are now considering rebelling. Every communication makes a difference, adding to the weight of doubt and fear that many MPs are now experiencing as they contemplate the future.
And we know from the comments below the line that Benefits and Work readers have been hugely active in this regard, from the very day the Green Paper was published.
Some readers have gone even further, finding opportunities to address groups of MPs and starting social media campaigns.
In all, we know our readers have made a real difference and we don’t doubt you will continue to do so.
Protests and campaigns
There are an increasing number of protests happening around the country, mainly organised by Disabled People Against Cuts (DPAC).
Many of these are small local events, some have centred around the in-person consultations and there has also been a mass lobby of parliament.
The People's Assembly are organising a national demonstration against austerity on 7 June, assembling at Portland place W1B at 12 noon for a march to Whitehall.
Meanwhile over 100 disabled public figures have begun a campaign to stop the cuts.
Labour rebellion
The estimated number of Labour MPs unhappy about the Green Paper started at 27 in April and is now variously estimated at between 150 and 200, with most commentators suggesting around 170.
According to the Institute for Government, Labour’s current working majority is 165, and it would take 84 Labour MPs to rebel to ensure a government defeat in the House of Commons (provided all opposition and independent MPs vote against the government).
Of course, not all of those 150-200 unhappy Labour MPs will vote against the government or even abstain.
But we are definitely in the territory where a government defeat is a genuine possibility.
Other parties
It seems clear that most opposition parties will oppose the bill. The Lib Dems seem set against it, as do the SNP and the Green party.
Most importantly, it now seems very likely that the Conservative party will vote against, it on the grounds that it has been badly thought through and does not save nearly enough money.
Waiting game
At the time of writing we are waiting for Liz Kendall to meet with Labour back benchers to try to persuade them of the necessity of the Green Paper cuts. Their reaction will tell us something about how the rebellion is progressing.
We are also waiting for Rachel Reeves to deliver her spending review on 11 June, in which we might get more hints about changes to the winter fuel allowance and two-child benefit cap, intended to try to buy off Labour rebels.
And, of course, we are waiting for the first bill relating to the Green Paper to be to be published. This is expected to bring in the changes to universal credit rates from April 2026 and the 4 point PIP rule from November 2026.
When the bill is published
We are far from experts on parliamentary procedure, but if Labour are to have any hope of getting the bill made law before the summer recess begins on 22 July then there cannot be much time to spare.
As far as we can tell, two weekends have to elapse after the Green Paper bill is published before the first Commons debate and vote can take place. So even if the bill has its first reading and is published by Friday 6 June, it can’t have its second reading and a vote before Monday 16 June. If it passes that vote, then it has to go through committee and report stages and a third reading at which another vote takes place. Then the bill is sent to the Lords.
So either Labour are very confident of having a majority in the House of Lords, or they have some sort of procedural ruse prepared, such as making the bill a money bill, in order to rush it through.
What to do next
Whilst we wait for the Green Paper bill to appear, it’s still worth contacting people you might not yet have been in touch with.
Local councillors and local branches of the Labour party are unquestionably becoming more vocal in their opposition to the cuts and they can exert some real influence on Labour MPs.
It’s unlikely that Rachel Reeves will listen to her Constituency Party’s condemnation of the cuts. But the Labour MPs in Sheffield are likely to take more note of the opposition of three of the local councils.
We still also think it’s worth trying to contact a few members of the House of Lords, because we don’t know what type of bill Labour might bring forward and what influence the upper house might have. (See the What you can do page for how to do this). And if anyone has had a positive response from a member of the Lords, do please contact us, as we’d like to share some ideas.
When the bill is finally published it will be crucial that MPs are bombarded with messages from their constituents telling them how they want them to vote, regardless of which party they belong to.
And finally . . .
And finally, please take a moment to realise what an extraordinary distance we have travelled in just eleven weeks, from shock and despair at Labour’s betrayal to a point where we can seriously contemplate their massive majority being overturned.
Labour thought by rushing things through they could prevent any real opposition building . . . they got that badly wrong.
So, keep on doing what you’ve been doing, because it’s definitely having an effect
As Green MP Sain Berry told her local paper this week “It is officially crunch time now, and I hope that people keep up the pressure on me and all local MPs to stand up and vote down these plans.”
